TORONTO — The Toronto Blue Jays emerged from the American Thanksgiving lull by finalizing their $210-million, seven-year agreement with Dylan Cease while also eyeing the industry’s winter meetings now just a week away.
Even with salary deferrals, the deal with the electric-armed right-hander will land as the second-biggest contract in franchise history and the largest ever handed out to a free agent.
That’s some serious business and in addressing their top priority of the winter, the Blue Jays are positioned to go in a number of different directions, which is why the most frequent question about them at the moment is, what’s next?
With that in mind, it’s a good time for an instalment of off-season FAQs …
So, what’s next?
The scale and scope of the Cease deal, on the heels of the World Series loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers, has some imaginations running wild, with some predicting an epic spree. Let’s start with this, the Blue Jays aren’t suddenly taking their payroll to Dodgers or New York Mets levels so, barring an unlikely set of circumstances, they’re not re-signing Bo Bichette and adding Kyle Tucker. But, they could certainly still add one of them, even with Cease’s pending deal, and they’re engaged on both fronts.
One thing to keep in mind is that if the Blue Jays don’t get Bichette or Tucker, they can’t simply reallocate the money they would have spent on them elsewhere, as they’re being viewed as specific business cases, like Shohei Ohtani two winters ago.
That’s notable because when asked about payroll for next year during his season wrap availability, president and CEO Mark Shapiro pointed to “an unprecedented level of support” this season and added, “I don't see that support going backwards at all.”
In 2025, their Competitive Balance Tax payroll was an estimated $280 million, per Spotrac, while their 2026 number is currently projecting at roughly $266 million, which includes Cease but not the one thing they are sure to do this winter — add more pitching.
Another leverage arm that can get swing-and-misses late in games is on the to-do list while a swing-man type or even another starter are possibilities, too. As is their way, they’ve engaged across all segments of the pitching market in search of the best fit or fits.
What does that mean on the position-player front?
The Blue Jays appear to be really selective here, as they seem to feel like they don’t have holes to fill and won’t force what could be a marginal upgrade onto the roster. If they make a move, then, it’s likely to be for a significant upgrade who raises the floor, a fitting description for either Bichette or Tucker, who both fit the club well defensively, too.
Interest in both players is, obviously, strong, but how their specific markets will develop is less clear. It’s possible that the position-player market may need Tucker to sign before the other players find landing spots.
Whatever happens, the Blue Jays can afford to play out the processes having already landed Cease to address their biggest need.
What about the trade market?
An interesting name floating around is Ketel Marte, the switch-hitting Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman who’s pretty close to a perfect fit for the Blue Jays. Is he truly in play? There’s some skepticism about that, although one executive noted that Marte is 10 days away from reaching 10-and-5 status — 10 years in the majors, five with the same team — which would grant him full no-trade rights and control over any future trade talks. So, if the Diamondbacks did want to make a change, this is the last window in which they’re in charge.
If he is in play, could the Blue Jays put together a good-enough package? Any subtracting team is sure to want Trey Yesavage as the centrepiece of a deal, something the Blue Jays are unlikely to do. And with few other potential headliner prospects — lefty Ricky Tiedemann and shortstop Arjun Nimmala are perhaps the top possibilities — they might have a tough time satisfying the needs of the Diamondbacks, if they do follow through.
Keep in mind that while the Blue Jays system is in a better place than it was a year ago, they also need to balance their depth needs, as well as their inventory for next summer’s trade deadline, potentially.
Where does that leave the Blue Jays, then?
Back to pitching, where their off-season started. Coming out of that miserable 2024, the Blue Jays placed an emphasis on adding swing-and-miss stuff to their bullpen and they’re chasing more of that this winter, be it someone who’s closed or pitched in late leverage. Cease probably takes them out of the very top of the starting-pitcher market, but they could still bring in someone else, knowing that Jose Berrios and Bowden Francis both finished the season on the injured list and that Shane Bieber logged meaningful innings after Tommy John surgery. Names they’re being connected to include Michael King, Zac Gallen, incumbents Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer and the intriguing Cody Ponce, who is eyeing a return to the majors after three seasons in Asia, including a breakthrough 2025 when he struck out a Korean Baseball Organization single-season record 252 batters in 180.2 innings with Hanwha. The Blue Jays kept close tabs on potentially available players in Asia all season.
Their work overseas paid off in a different segment of the market last year, as the minor-league contract Eric Lauer signed last December became one of their most impactful moves of that winter. Finding such an important contributor in that tier every year isn’t easy, but the Blue Jays are sure to again try layering in such depth.
A host of possibilities remain and thanks to the early Cease agreement, lots of time for the Blue Jays to play them all out.
